NFL 2019 Three ways the Seahawks can overcome the unexpected departure of Doug Baldwin

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By almost every measure, the are a good football team and have been a good football team for a while now. Since the dawn of the era, they've averaged 10.7 wins per season and have only mi sed the playoffs once. Wilson has developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Since the departure of Tom Cable, the offensive line is no longer a fatal flaw. Despite undergoing a purge of mainstays from the franchise's iconic championship roster, the Seahawks' defense has managed to remain relatively strong while also getting younger. The Seahawks might be more of a potential usurper than the actual king in the NFC West, but make no mistake about it, they underwent a transition that would've crippled most teams and almost immediately reemerged from that proce s as a playoff-caliber team. It's impre sive. Except that, concerns still do exist. On defense, the Seahawks let and . On offense, the Seahawks will be lacking their best skill-position player, receiver , who It's the lo s of Baldwin that might be the most concerning. After all, the Seahawks did well to replace Clark with and first-round pick L.J. Collier. They proceeded to draft safety in the second round. Once upon a time, we watched Pete Carroll and John Schneider build the Legion of Boom. Over the past couple of years, we've watched them part ways with nearly every member of that heralded defense to build a younger unit. So far, the proce s appears to be going well. The Seahawks and 11th in points allowed this past season. It's easier to trust the Seahawks braintrust's ability to replace Thomas and Clark than its ability to replace Baldwin. In Baldwin's eight-year career, during which he went from an undrafted free agent to the league's best slot target, he averaged 61.6 catches, 820.4 yards, and 6.1 touchdowns per season. In 13 playoff games, he caught 58 pa ses for 734 yards and six touchdowns. It won't be easy, but the Seahawks will have to find a way to replace that kind of production if they want to overtake the Rams in the NFC West. With that in mind, let's take a look at three ways the Seahawks can overcome Baldwin's sudden departure. 1. Increase slot usage The thing about Doug Baldwin is that while he might've been only one of the league's best receivers, he was the league's best slot receiver. no receiver garnered a higher slot receiving grade than Baldwin from 2011-18 and came from the interior. So in that sense, it's not just about the Seahawks finding a way to replace Baldwin's typical yearly output. It's more about finding a way to replace his effectivene s out of the slot. Luckily, the best receiver still on the team's roster appears to be ready for a heavier slot role. The team's new best receiver is Tyler Lockett, who is coming off a breakout season that included 57 catches, 965 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He averaged an awesome 13.8 yards per target and 16.9 yards per catch in 2018. But it might make sense for the Seahawks to increase his slot usage now that they're down Baldwin. According to PFF, -- ranking one spot ahead of and two spots ahead of . That shouldn't come as a surprise. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Only Michael Thomas and (seriously) ranked ahead of him. Baldwin mi sed three games last year: Weeks 2, 3, and 14. In those games, the Seahawks faced three strong defenses in the , , and . Without Baldwin in Week 2, Lockett caught five pa Dak Prescott Jersey ses for 60 yards and a touchdown. In Week 3, Lockett caught four pa ses for 77 yards and a score. Finally, in Week 14, Lockett caught five pa ses for only 42 yards, but look at his route chart , because it's remarkably diverse and could be a preview of what's to come in 2019 -- ideally with a few more yards along the way. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has said he plans to move Lockett around the field, which makes sense. The Seahawks don't want to turn Lockett into only a slot receiver when he's also productive on the outside. But it also sounds like we should expect Lockett to get more looks from the slot, which also just happens to be the way his usage was already trending. Tyler Lockett's snap breakdown over the years:2015 - 211 in the slot, 543 out wide2016 - 166 in the slot, 382 out wide2017 - 348 in the slot, 336 out wide2018 - 457 in the slot, 496 out wide PFF SEA Seahawks (@PFF_Seahawks) According to Bob Condotta, when the Seahawks operated out of three-receiver sets at OTAs, . 2. Get the most out of D.K. Metcalf With Lockett Jaylon Smith Jersey in the slot, there are two openings on the outside. Condotta also reported for that -- with Lockett on the inside, and Brown and Moore on the outside. Last year, Brown and Moore combined to catch 40 pa ses for 611 yards and 10 touchdowns. Perhaps they'll improve, but those are not starting receiver kind of numbers. The key is D.K. Metcalf and how quickly he develops at the next level. Regarded by many as a top-15 pick after Metcalf fell to the Seahawks at the end of the second round. Regardle s of how you feel about his overall game, there's no denying his potential to erupt as a downfield target. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein Nobody should expect him to contribute in Week 1 as an all-around receiving threat -- making the transition from college to the pros is difficult enough for more refined receivers. But if the Seahawks can harne s his unique skillset, they should be able to turn him into an impact-now player who can provide them with explosive plays down the sidelines -- the kind of plays they could be short on if Lockett shifts primarily to the slot. And here's where it's worth noting that Wilson might have the best deep ball in football in terms of accuracy. , according to NFL Next Gen Stats -- one spot ahead of . He still managed to complete 65.6 percent of his pa ses. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Wilson's expected completion percentage was 60.4. So, Wilson outperformed his expected completion percentage by 5.2 percent -- the fourth-highest . If Metcalf's explosivene s is harne sed by the Seahawks, he could form a dangerous combination with Wilson to provide the Seahawks with the chunk plays they need. 3. Throw the ball more on early downs Replacing Baldwin won't just be about the players. They'll need help from the coaching staff. This is probably the Seahawks' biggest overall concern heading into the upcoming season. Under Schottenheimer, the Seahawks adopted a run-first approach last season. Only the Ravens racked up more rushing attempts than the Seahawks. To a degree, it worked. The Seahawks finished the season first in rushing yards. The problem is, the Seahawks relied too heavily on running the ball. It's an argument that was there all along -- no team attempted fewer pa ses than the Seahawks over the course of the season -- but gained serious steam when the Seahawks saw their season end against the Cowboys in the playoffs. In that game, the Seahawks' three running backs combined for 59 yards on 21 carries. Wilson didn't get enough chances to influence the outcome of the game. Warren Sharp's postgame Twitter thread captured the problem brilliantly: Seahawks fans, we're going to have a long talk about Brian Schottenheimer. Seattle doesn't have Blake Bortles or Case Keenum at QB. This is Ru sell Wilson.16 Wilson pa ses @ 8.3 YPA vs 21 non-Wilson runs @ 2.8 YPCOne of the worst called games w a good QB I can remember. Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) Ru sell Wilson averaged 8.6 YPA & recorded a 106 rating.The Seahawks RBs averaged 2.8 YPC on 21 runs.In the 1st half on 1st downs, your: runs averaged 2.0 YPC pa ses averaged 14.5 YPAand yet you kept running on 1st down in the 2nd half like it was +EV vs pa sing. Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) In the first half Wilson was 7/11 with 8.8 YPA.Your RB-run game gained 19 yards on 9 carries, 2.1 YPC. Your longest run was 5 yards.And yet you came out the locker room on the 1st drive and went:1st & 10: 1 yard RB-run2nd & 9: 3 yard RB-run3rd & 6: predictable pa sPUNT Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) Trailing on every offensive play of the 2nd half & knowing the run game was burnt, you went full DGAF:1st down play calls on your first 4 drives of the 2nd half:6 RB-runs: 3.9 YPC, 14% succe s rate1 pa s: 9 yards, 100% succe s rateHOW. DO. YOU. DO. THIS. TO. YOUR. TEAM? Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) The best way to ease the burden on Wilson -- suddenly without his best receiver who has always been there for him throughout his career -- is to put him in more pa s-friendly situations. The Seahawks need to stop running the ball on first and second down before asking Wilson to bail them out on third down, when defenses know they're facing a pa sing play. As Josh Hermsmeyer chronicled over at FiveThirtyEight, The league average was 16 percent. Only 41.2 percent of those sequences ended succe sfully. But when the Seahawks went pa s-rush-rush, they were succe sful 88.9 percent of the time. When they went pa s-pa s-rush, they were succe sful 71.4 percent of the time. When they went pa s-rush-pa s, they were succe sful 50 percent of the time. As Hermsmeyer explained, this isn't a Seahawks-specific problem. Rush-pa s-pa s is one of the least succe sful sequences for every team. That's why it's especially problematic that the Seahawks use that sequence way more than any other team. Even Seahawks left tackle said after the season that Throwing the ball on third-and-long isn't easy. It's not easy for the quarterback to go up against pa s rushers who aren't worried about a running back flying past them through their gap. It's not easy for the receivers going up against defensive backs who aren't concerned about stepping up to stop the run. It won't be any easier for the Seahawks, who are suddenly without their best receiver and route runner. The Seahawks can overcome that lo s with better coaching. Unfortunately, better coaching doesn't seem likely, because Schottenheimer , recently saying "We make no apologies Amari Cooper Jersey for how we play." Chances are, you'll be see a whole lot of tweets like this one during the upcoming season. me if the seahawks go run-run-pa s all game Mina Kimes (@minakimes)
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